THE YEAR OF TESTING
by Aaron Harber
2010 Presents The Opportunity To Test Many Theories
There is no question that 2010 already is one of the craziest political years Coloradans have seen and presents some unique opportunities to test a number of political theories and claims. The challenge will be in seeing if any of them can be sorted out from the others. Here is a sampling.
THE BIG TRENDS
ARE ALL POLITICS NATIONAL? Can the national trend against anyone with a “D” after his or her name overwhelm local events? If there is a tidal wave in favor of Republicans on November 2nd, will it be massive enough to carry Maes or McInnis over the top despite the hefty anchors securely strapped to their bodies? Will the U.S. Senate race in Colorado be tipped to Republicans by the anti-Democratic wave or will Democrats somehow have convinced voters they have done a good job in Washington? And, even if they did such a good job, will voters worried about the poor state of the Economy believe them?
THE DEMOCRATIC U.S. SENATE PRIMARY
CAN SERVICE BEAT MONEY? Former Colorado Speaker of the Hose Andrew Romanoff’s Primary Election challenge of incumbent but never-elected U.S. Senator Michael Bennet offers a number of tests. The first is whether or not Democrats will turn out a sitting Senator of their own party with whom they agree on almost all issues. The second is a chance to assess the political value of being Speaker. Historically, legislative leadership positions haven’t translated impressively in statewide races. The third is whether Democrats remain upset with Governor Bill Ritter’s selection of Bennet over Romanoff, Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, and a host of others who were known and liked better than Bennet. (Coincidentally, by not selecting Hickenlooper, Ritter did Democrats a favor because the Mayor would not have been a candidate for Governor if he were a U.S. Senator.) The fourth is whether or not Bennet’s huge financial advantage, anchored by his prodigious fundraising, can overwhelm the initially better-known Romanoff.
WILL “DON’T CHANGE HORSES IN MID-STREAM” PREVAIL? Michael Bennet’s key argument is there are no major policy differences between himself and Andrew Romanoff. Therefore, if he is the incumbent Senator, why should Democrats make a switch? On the surface, this is a convincing argument and puts Romanoff in a defensive position to argue why fellow Democrats should dump Bennet. The strategy could backfire as Democrats fill out their ballots. Voting “with their minds”, many know it makes sense to support Bennet. Voting “with their hearts, some Democrats are likely to select Romanoff.
POWER OF THE PRESIDENC? President Barack Obama elected to intervene in the U.S. Senate race as soon as Bennet had a competitor. Will Obama be a positive or negative influence? With a slew of campaign-ending television advertisements featuring Obama touting Bennet as his candidate (which won’t help Bennet in the General Election), both Obama and the Bennet campaign have made it clear they want Democrats to demonstrate their support of the President by casting their ballots for Bennet. Romanoff has been careful to avoid all criticism of the President and to call for unity no matter who the victor is but Obama’s involvement --- seen by some as “Washington telling Coloradans what to do” --- may have reinforced the displeasure many Democrats had when Governor Bill Ritter originally selected Bennet over such Democratic stalwarts as Romanoff and Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper.
THE REPUBLICAN U.S. SENATE PRIMARY
IS THE TEA PARTY A REAL FORCE? Ken Buck’s U.S. Senate campaign and Dan Maes’ gubernatorial campaign initially were seen as good tests of the power of those disenchanted electors who consider themselves aligned with the principles of the various Tea Party groups. They offered a measure of the strength of these generally well-educated, above average income citizens concerned primarily about out-of-control federal spending. Buck’s recent description of some Tea Party members promoting the controversy about President Obama’s citizenship status as “dumbasses” and Maes’ egregious campaign finance violations, however, may have alienated some of those aligned with the Tea Party movement. It still will be interesting to see what their influence is, especially at the Primary Election level.
HOW MUCH WILL MISTAKES HURT? Will Ken Buck’s now infamous “high heels” comment cost him enough votes to lost the Primary to Jane Norton or will Republican voters discount the accusations of sexism against him (especially if they watch his entire speech and take him only as seriously as he was taking himself)? Will Norton’s campaign have recovered from its initial doldrums in time to win the contest? And which one of these actually cut the budgets of his or her own departments while in office? Republican voters have two good candidates from which to choose so will the budget-related facts alone make it close?
THE REPUBLICAN GUBERNATORIAL PRIMARY
IS TANCREDO AN AFTERTHOUGHT? Tom Tancredo should not be underestimated by anyone but the real question is “Will he stay in the race?” It is obvious he is highly unlikely to win election as Governor but he could draw nine votes away from the Republican nominee for every one vote he captures from the Democratic nominee. While some Democrats are concerned about illegal immigration and will support a Tancredo bid, they will be dwarfed by his Republican and unaffiliated voter support. When Tancredo realizes he is destroying his relationship with the Republican Party and concludes victory will never be within reach, will he exit the stage he loves so much?
IS THE PEN IS MIGHTIER THAN THE TV AD? What effect will the impact be of The Denver Post stories and editorials about gubernatorial candidate Scott McInnis? How powerful is The Post? While its article content was highly accurate, there is no question The Post went after McInnis with an all-out effort. The volume of its coverage dwarfed that of every other newspaper in the State. Its headlines often were brutal (e.g., “McInnis Lying” --- without the quotation marks was, perhaps, the most excessive). Its front-page placements were exceptional. It was accused of burying partially exculpatory evidence. And its editorial calling for McInnis to resign from the race was extraordinary. There is no argument The Post was not justified in the decisions it made. What was impressive was the sheer force of its effort. The question now is “What effect will this journalistic fusillade have?”
HOW MUCH DOES THE ELECTORATE CARE? While many Coloradans understandably are upset with McInnis’s uncontested plagiarism violations, how many know about them? How many who do know, don’t care? And how many citizens are not even paying attention to the Republican primary anyway? If citizens are well-informed about the events to date, are they are likely to slaughter McInnis at the polls? Polling to date shows the charges already have cost McInnis fully half of his support but not enough to count him out of the Primary Election. And, if he wins the Primary, could he make a comeback? Will voters in November forget what happened this summer?
MORTALLY WALLET-WOUNDED? Did the revelations of plagiarism fatally wound McInnis, especially as far as his fundraising is concerned? That is, if financial supporters see McInnis as “damaged goods,” they are likely to (a) not donate to his campaign or severely reduce their contributions (i.e., a $1,000 donation becomes $100) or not give money to the 501, 504 and 527 organizations supporting his candidacy. With Democratic nominee John Hickenlooper already proving to be a prodigious fundraiser, McInnis could find himself in a huge hole even if he wins the Primary Election. Will the Republicans hunger for the Governor’s Mansion be so extraordinary it will overcome their disappointment in their nominee?
DEMOTIVATING? If McInnis wins the Primary Election, will he be able to rally the Republican faithful? Will Republican activists give 100% or is 25% more likely to be the average if the troops are demotivated? How will that affect other Republican candidates further down the ticket? Will a demotivated Republican Party mean less money for other candidates? Will it allow Hickenlooper to allocate precious resources to help Democratic candidates in key legislative races so as to help Democrats maintain control of the State House and Senate?
DO TWO WRONGS MAKE A RIGHT? With Republican gubernatorial and top-line candidate Dan Maes paying a historically high campaign reporting fine of $17,500, will his mistakes cancel out those made by McInnis as far as Republican Primary Election voters are concerned? Faced with the choice of two flawed candidates, how will Republicans sort out their choices? To date, it appears Maes lost far less support than McInnis did but their race remains close.
HOW MUCH DOES EXPERIENCE COUNT? Revelations that Dan Maes is an Average Joe financially were used to discredit his claims of business expertise but few Republicans seem to have deserted him despite the fact he did not have any stunning business successes to back up the impression he gave many that he was a successful businessperson. Will voters in either the Primary or General Election care when his limited business experience and success are contrasted with the business, civic, charitable, and government successes of John Hickenlooper? The fact Maes has survived at all in this terrible Economy may be all he needs to make his case.
WILL MCINNIS BE THE ULTIMATE “COMEBACK KID?’ There is no question that, if McInnis wins the Primary and General Elections, he will have overcome incredible odds and mounted the greatest comeback and total point swing in contemporary Colorado political history. No one in the pundit class is predicting his election so a McInnis victory on November 2nd would be seen as a tremendous upset.
These questions and more may be answered in the August 10th and November 2nd elections but it is likely there are even more complications in store.
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Aaron Harber hosts "The Aaron Harber Show" seen on Channel 3 KCDO-TV (K3 Colorado) on Sundays at 8:00 pm and at www.HarberTV.com. He also hosts "Colorado Election 2010 TM" seen Sundays at 8:30 pm on Channel 3 and on Mondays at 8:00 pm on COMCAST Entertainment Television and is viewable 24/7 at www.Colorado2010.com. Send e-mail to Aaron@HarberTV.com. (C) Copyright 2010 by USA Talk Network, Inc. and Aaron Harber All rights reserved.
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Sunday, August 1, 2010